Total Debt (Public and Private) in the United States, Euro Zone, China, Japan and the U.K.

This graph shows the total debt (government, households and firms) for the biggest economies in the world. First, what I think is remarkable is that total debt is for the developing world (except Japan) all around 250 percent of GDP. Second, total debt did not decline since the crisis. In Japan and China (perhaps as expected) it is even rising again.

BBVA Research

Japanese Government Debt Approaching 250 Percent

Although the interest rate the Japanse government pays on its debt is one of the lowest, the debt it has is the highest debt as a percentage of GDP in the world.

Reuters

Greece Economic Overview (May 2012)

Overview of the Greece economy (May 2012). Especially notice the consumer confidence and the collapsed new car registrations.

OECD Government Budget History: Deficit versus surplus

The Economist posted this interesting chart with the budget historty from several countries. On the top a smaller group of countries over a longer time and on the bottom a bigger group of countries over a smaller time. Unfortunately there was no data available for both more countries and over a longer period. What both graphs show though is that most countries had a lot more years with a budget deficit than years with a budget surplus. Many economists advice governments to buildup debt-ratio in a recession and lower the debt-ratio in a boom. Because there were more deficit years that surplus years, this wasn't the case. Overall, in the long run government debt ratio's on average increased.

Due to a request by the Economist this graph has been removed. 

View graph here

United States Sectoral Balance Sheets (1985-2012)

As you can see running up to the crisis households massively increased their borrowing. The government also had substantial deficits in the nineties and after the millennium. The corporate sector was on average almost in balance. Since the crisis a dramatic increase in savings by the private sector made the public sector increase its deficit.

Richard Koo

Spain Sectoral Balance Sheets

Households (since 1997) and the corporate (since 1999) sector massively increased their borrowing. A big part of the financing of the increased borrowing came from the rest of the world that increased it's savings in Spain by a huge amount. On the contrast the Spanish government decreased spending dramatically. During the crisis the government had to step in because of the high rise in private savings (and lower consumption and investments).

Richard Koo

Sectoral Balance Sheets Euro Zone

This chart from the OECD shows per sector the net lending/borrowing for the Euro Zone. As you can see the household and the financial sectors are net lending sectors and the non-financial corporations and governments are net borrowing sectors. This means for example for the households that they save more than they borrow for a sector as a whole. This doesn't mean that the borrowing of the households doesn't increase on the other hand.

The total economy shows the net lending/borrwing of the total Euro Zone economy. In  other words when the Euro Zone as a total economy is borrowing, it borrows from the rest of the world, which was the case before the crisis.

Before the crisis households en companies increased their borrowing notably. Since the crisis households and companies started do pay off their debt. Although as you were able to see in other posts this is a long process. The lower demand by the households and the companies was accommodated by an increase in government spending (higher borrowing).

OECD

Global Housing Indicators (April 2012)

The Economist has made an overview of updated global house-price indicators. From left to right: compared to a year ago prices rose the most in Canada, Singapore and Austria. In Ireland, Spain and Denmark prices declined the most. Compared to when the crises started house prices have even still increased 72 percent in Hong Kong and 34 percent in Singapore. They have declined 48 percent in Ireland and 30 percent in the United States.

Housing prices cannot easily be compared country by country. For example if house prices rise with income this may reflect a fundamental increase. If house prices increase a lot more than income this is probably not sustainable. If you compare house prices to rents and income per country you can make a better comparison. Compared to rents house prices are the most overvalued in Canada, New Zealand and Belgium. They are the most undervalued in Japan and Germany, and surprisingly also in the United States. Compared to income house prices are the most overvalued in Belgium and France. They are the most undervalued in Japan, China and the United States.

In total (average of rental and income) prices are most overvalued in Singapore, Canada, Hong Kong, Belgium and France. They are the least overvalued in Japan, The United States and Germany.

Due to a request by the Economist this graph has been removed. 

View the graph here

Spanish Construction Employment From Record High to Record Low

With real interest rates going negative in the years after 2000, more than 5 million new immigrants added to the labor force and high amounts of lending by households and companies (from abroad) not only a housing bubble was created in Spain but also one in the construction market.

When the credit crisis begun and interest rates started to rise it became clear that this boom was not sustainable. Construction employment dropped to the lowest value in 25 years this year.

Economies of Italy and Spain Compared (March 2012)

Before the crises started in 2008 the economy in Spain grew remarkably faster than in Italy. Since the crisis started Spain is still doing relatively better (or rather less bad) again, as you can see in the first graph on the left. While that happened Spain's unemployment, while being almost the same as for Italy in 2007, was more than double the rate of Italy in 2011. Spain again is doing better for the government debt, although it increased a lot more since the crises than in Italy, so the two graphs on the bottom show.

Spain and Italy's bond yields were closely tied in the last five years. In late 2011 Italy's bond yields sparked above that of Spain, but since a few weeks Italy's yields have come down to around Spain's yield again.

Buildup of Total Debt (Consumers, Companies & Gov.) in 80s, 90s and 00s

In the left part of the graph you can see the total debt development for the United States across the Household, Corporate, Government and Government Sponsored Entity sectors. You can see that Great Depression levels are being reached again.

Not for every country data about debt levels are available for such a long period. There is data available however from 1980. In the right panel you can see the debt buildup for the three sectors combined (excluding financial sector) per decade as a percentage of GDP. You can see that from 1980-1990 Belgium, Sweden, Italy and Japan had the highest debt buildup. From 1990-2000 Portugal, Spain, Germany and Italy had the highest increase. From 2000 until 2010 however, Portugal, Spain, U.K., France, U.S. and Greece were among the countries with the highest buildup in their debt across the three sectors.

Greece Economic Overview (February 2012)

This graph from Reuters gives a great overview of the current economic situation in Greece. All the indicators are a lot worse than the Euro Zone average. Especially look at the unemployment rate, which recently jumped over 20 percent.

Greece Debt/GDP: Austerity Versus Economic Growth

This chart from Der Spiegel shows in a great way how austerity can make the Debt/GDP ratio bigger(!). When more austerity in the future makes the economy of Greece contract even more, the debt ratio as a percentage gdp (given the debt remains the same) increases, while austerity is implemented to make the debt ratio decrease. This is why it is important the Troika (Europe+IMF) - which currently is about ruling the Greek government - needs to look at the trade-off between austerity and economic growth every time it evaluates the Greek economy.

Der Spiegel

Financial Sector Debt as a Percentage of GDP

You can see in this graph from The Economist (with data from Mckinsey) that the United Kingdom, Japan and France have the highest Financial Debt for the selected countries. As for household debt are the emerging countries the ones with the lowest financial debt. Also for financial debt the United Kingdom is the country with the highest amount, as is the case with the total debt (which you were able to see in this post.

Due to a request by the Economist this graph has been removed. 

View the graph here

Household Debt as a Percentage of GDP (Developed and Emerging Countries)

You can see in the graph from The Economist (with data from Mckinsey) that the Anglo-Saxon countries have the highest household debt of selected countries. The emerging countries have the lowest household debt. As you were able to see in this post with total debt (government, household, financial and non-financial) Britain was also the country with the highest total debt.

Due to a request by the Economist this graph has been removed. 

View the graph here

Italy Government Debt History 1861-2010

Reinhart and Rogoff have made data available from their groundbreaking book 'This Time Is Different'. One of the data sets contains the history of government debt for Italy.

As you can seen Italy is 'used' to relatively high government debt. Over the 150 years pictured the government debt was on average 81 percent. Only twice during the interval has the government debt been below 60 percent. When the chart starts from 1861 for a few years and after the Second World War until 1982.

The high debt levels that Italy currently faces again was mainly build up in the eighties. In the nineties when Italy had to bring their government debt back down to 60 percent to meet the criteria for introducing the euro it brought debt down by 21 percent. That lowest percentage was 99 percent which Italy had in 1999. Italy adopted the euro in 1999.

Reinhart & Rogoff

Total Debt (Private & Public) 2000-2011

Mckinsey published its follow up on one of my favorite papers. The series is called Debt and Deleveraging. Debt as in countries taking on more debt and deleveraging as in bringing down the debt levels. This graph shows the total debt for some selected countries, which consists of public (government) and private (household, non-financial firms and financial firms) debt. 

As you can see Total Debt is extremely high in Japan and in the U.K. Spain and France have high debt levels as well. South Korea seems to have about average total debt. It would be interesting and a better comparison to see more countries. Also debt is not the only thing that matters. If you look at balance sheets for the public and private actors, as individual companies, it is ofcourse also important to look at the assets.

Mckinsey Photostream on Flickr

Overview of the Deficit And Debt History for Euro Zone (2000-2010)

The next two chart give a great overview of the government finances in the first decade of this century in the Euro Zone. It also shows which countries broke the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact. Which says countries can't have deficits higher than three percent and debt higher than sixty percent, both as a percentage of GDP.


Before the crisis Ireland, Spain, Estonia, Luxembourgh and Finland were the only countries that never broke the rules. Especially notice France and Germany, which both had a debt higher than 60% every year since 2003. France had a deficit higher than 3% for 2002-2004 and Germany for 2001-2005.


This chart shows the deficits per year for all the Euro Zone countries from 2000-2010.

This chart shows how the government debt changed per year for all the Euro Zone countries from 2000-2010.

Macrobusiness

Pictured: Sweden Versus the Euro Zone

This graph from Reuters compares the economy of Sweden with the economy of the Euro Zone as a whole. As you can see Sweden had a bigger economic downturn but grew faster since. Government debt and deficit are remarkably lower in Sweden compared to the Euro Zone.

Household Debt In The United States

This graph shows the total household debt in the United States. Orange is motgage loans. HE Revolving is home equity loans. Green is auto loan. Blue is credit card loans and from this quarter student loans are added as well (red). As you can see the american citizen is deleveraging (bringing down its debt), but it takes time. The household debt is about 77% of U.S. GDP.