Euro Zone Unemployment Spreads Q4 2012

When people talk about Euro Zone spreads they normally refer to the difference between the government borrowing interest rate of a particular Euro Zone country in comparison to the interest rate for the German government. German government bonds are taken as the benchmark since lending to the German government is basically seen as risk free. When lending to other countries, especially the southern Euro Zone countries, a risk premium is added on top of the German interest rate to reflect the higher default rate of those countries.

Besides this financial interpretation of spreads, a different form of spreads can be constructed to show the differences in the real economy between the Euro Zone countries: unemployment spreads. Unemployment spreads for the Euro Zone are defined as the difference between the unemployment rate in a particular Euro Zone country and the unemployment rate in Germany. As can be expected Euro Zone countries most hit by the Euro crisis have the highest unemployment spreads, with Greece and Spain even above 20 percent. This is a lot higher than the Euro Area average of 5.8 percent and the EU average of 5,3 percent. Austria, the Netherlands and Finland on the other hand have unemployment rates comparable to that of Germany.

EU Countries 2012 Government Debt Projections

Reuters constructed this graph, with data from the European Commission, which shows the projected government debt ratio's for the selected EU countries. As you cansee for most countries the debt to gdp ratio is well above it's 10 year average.

As you might have expected Greece has the highest debt to gdp ratio. On the other hand, Sweden's debt is even lower than it's 10 year average. Euro Area avearge government debt is expected to be at 95 percent.

Reuters

Household Debt Versus Disposable Income (1995-2011)

This graph gives the ratio of total household debt divided by the total of disposable income of the households in countries of the Euro Area and the USA. On average the household debt to income rate was relatively stable in the Euro Area approaching the 100 percent just before the credit crisis from around 70 percent at the beginning of the Euro. The household debt to income ratio was already higher in 1999 in the USA and saw a much bigger increase, but unlike in the Euro Area the ratio has come back quite a lot already in the United States.

The average of around 100 percent currently in the Euro Area is mainly formed by the bigger economies: Germany and France, who have a ratio close to the Euro Area average. There are notable outliners, especially Denmark, The Netherlands and Ireland that have a way bigger ratio of 200 to almost 300 percent.

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Credit Ratings, U.S., Japan and Euro Zone (Oct 2012)

Thompson Reuters created this graph with the long term sovereign debt ratings for the Western countries. For the three major credit rating institutions the ratings are listed.

Thompson Reuters

Government Debt in the EU Countries (second quarter 2012)

This great graph from Reuters shows per EU country the government debt it had at the end of the second quarter, as a percentage of GDP.

Since the crisis Portugal, Ireland have been accumulating debt at a high rate, while seeing their economy shrink significantly. This is shows in the government-debt-to-GDP measure, for which they are in respectively  the third and the fourth place in having the highest government debt in the EU.

Estonia and Bulgaria have the lowest government debt in the EU.

Developed Countries GDP Growth (2nd Quarter 2012)

This chart show the quarterly economic growth (second quarter versus the first quarter of 2012) for the countries in the Euro Zone, compared with the United States and Japan. What is interesting is that most Euro Zone countries saw their economic growth far below the U.S. and Japan, especially Portugal and Italy. Not being in the Euro Zone is not a guarantuee for economic growth though, as you can see with the -0.7 percent contraction in the United Kingdom.

http://twitpic.com/aj9dlc

Economist Poll of Forecasters (July 2012) for 2012, 2013

This graph shows the average forecast for economic data (2012 & 2013) of the main economies in the world. Except for Australia and Japan all the average real GDP growth figures in July have been lowered since June. Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the Euro Area are expected to have a minus growth for 2012. For 2013 only Italy and Spain are expected to see it's economy contract. Italy's inflation rate is expected to stay relatively high though, while Japan and Switzerland keep having low inflation rates. Spain is expected to see it's current account deficit shrink more and more.

Due to a request by the Economist this graph has been removed. 

View the graph here

EU VAT-Rates Compared

The value added tax raises the price on consumer goods. Almost all EU countries had a higher VAT-rate in 2012 compared to 2000. Perhaps surprisingly, Hungary has the highest VAT-rate, followed by Scandinavian Denmark and Sweden. Cyprus, Portugal, Greece, Spain and Romania particularly saw their VAT rising in the last twelve years. Except for Cyprus, all of these countries have now a higher rate than the average for the EU of 21 percent.

Reuters

Oil Consumption (consumers+companies) Per Capita

As you were able to see in the post a few days ago, The United States consumes the most oil of all the countries. Perhaps surprisingly enough, it is not the country with the highest oil consumption per capita. Singapore takes the first spot, with Kuwait and Saudi Arabia second and third. The U.S. only takes the ninth place after two more oil producing countries, two European countries and Canada. Perhaps also surprisingly, Germany is on the bottom of the developed countries.

Update: this chart also shows consumption of companies, like aviation and oil refinery. That's why consumption per capita may be a bit misleading.

Oil Consumption Per Capita

OECD: Official Versus Effective Retirement Age

The official retirement age is rarely equal to the effective retirement age, the average age the people actually retire. As you can see in this chart the official retirement age can be both higher and lower than the effective retirement age. What is the same for all countries is that the life expectancy was raised and that (assuming an equal or declining birth rate) the work force needs to finance more elderly people. A very reasonable option to do that is by raising the effective retirement age (with the official retirement age).

Japan and Sweden had the highest effective retirement age in 2010, while Austria, France and Belgium (and not Greece) had the lowest effective retirement age.

The Economist

Long Term Pension Age (OECD Countries)

OECD published this graph with the long term pension age in OECD countries. Denmark and Italy have their pension age linked to life expectancy, which means it will almost reach 69 in 2050. Iceland and Norway are already at 67, and increasingly more countries will reach that age in the next years. In some countries there are differences between woman and men.

OECD Pensions Outlook 2012

Credit Ratings Overview April 2012

The ratings by S&P and Moody's are generally viewed as the most important. As you can see only Germany, Finland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands have an AAA-rating by all of the credit rating agencies.

Hourly Labour Costs European Union Private Sector 2011

This chart with data from Eurostat shows the estimated hourly labour costs in euro's for enterprises with more than 10 employees in the European Union. Norway, Belgium, Sweden, Denmark and France have the highest labour costs. Bulgaria, Romania and Latvia have the lowest costs.

Eurostat

Buildup of Total Debt (Consumers, Companies & Gov.) in 80s, 90s and 00s

In the left part of the graph you can see the total debt development for the United States across the Household, Corporate, Government and Government Sponsored Entity sectors. You can see that Great Depression levels are being reached again.

Not for every country data about debt levels are available for such a long period. There is data available however from 1980. In the right panel you can see the debt buildup for the three sectors combined (excluding financial sector) per decade as a percentage of GDP. You can see that from 1980-1990 Belgium, Sweden, Italy and Japan had the highest debt buildup. From 1990-2000 Portugal, Spain, Germany and Italy had the highest increase. From 2000 until 2010 however, Portugal, Spain, U.K., France, U.S. and Greece were among the countries with the highest buildup in their debt across the three sectors.

2012 Forecast: Double Dip Recession in Euro Zone

The European Commission released its latest forecast for the change in yearly GDP for the countries in the European Union. Compared to the current forecast for the growth of 2011 (no definite figures yet), all countries except for two, are expected to grow (or contract) at a lower rate in 2012. Ironically Greece is among the two countries that is expected to do better this year, than last year. Although it's still the country with the highest expected contraction in the EU.

The Euro Zone as a whole is expected to contract by 0,3%, while for the European Union a zero percent 'growth' is expected.

Reuters

OECD Countries: Average Tuition Fees & Grants Received (Public Institutions)

This graph shows the average higher edution public tuition fees in dollars for the year 2004/2005. You can see United States was the most expensive country to study in that year. Australia and Japan come in second. Its the cheapest to study in Turkey, Sweden, Finland, Czech Republic, Norway and Denmark.

In Turkey, Norway, Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands (almost) every student receives a grant. In Belgium and Japan the least number of student receive a grant.

Source: CBS

OECD Countries: How much does the one percent earn?

The one chart which the global occupy-er needs.

In this chart you can see what share of total income the one percent of earners have in several countries. The light blue is the share which it was in 1990. The dark blue is the share which it was in 2007. The United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Finland and Ireland saw the biggest increases in inequality.

Off The Charts

As you can see the United States has by far the highest inequality among OECD countries.

The next chart shows which occupation the richest 0,1 percent (not the 1 percent) in the United States have.

This chart shows the change in occupation in the total 0,1 percent richest earners. You can see that finance increased dramatically.

EconomPic

Overview of the Deficit And Debt History for Euro Zone (2000-2010)

The next two chart give a great overview of the government finances in the first decade of this century in the Euro Zone. It also shows which countries broke the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact. Which says countries can't have deficits higher than three percent and debt higher than sixty percent, both as a percentage of GDP.


Before the crisis Ireland, Spain, Estonia, Luxembourgh and Finland were the only countries that never broke the rules. Especially notice France and Germany, which both had a debt higher than 60% every year since 2003. France had a deficit higher than 3% for 2002-2004 and Germany for 2001-2005.


This chart shows the deficits per year for all the Euro Zone countries from 2000-2010.

This chart shows how the government debt changed per year for all the Euro Zone countries from 2000-2010.

Macrobusiness

Euro Zone Bond Spreads Above Historical Levels

This chart shows the Government Bond Spreads (difference between interest rates of 10 year government bodns of the selected countries verser the interest rate of german bonds). You can see that for some of the countries these spreads are higher than they were in the years before. So you may ask as the FT did: Why did we bother?

FT

House Prices Around The World (1970-2008)

This chart shows the development of the house prices around the world. In Europe, Belgium, UK, Netherlands, Ireland and Norway had the highest increases in the house prices. Germany, Switzerland, Swden, Italy and France had the lowest increases.

Outside Europe, Australia and Canada had relatively has relatively high house prices and relatively lower in Japans and the U.S.

Especially notice 1995 when in many countries house prices started to rise dramatically.

Business Insider