Cyprus Bailout Pictured

After many days of uncertainty finally a deal has been made between the Troika and Cyprus. The island was required to raise 5.8 billion euro's (bail-in), when Europe would contribute 10 billion (bailout) to save the banks in Cyprus hit by huge losses incurred on Greek assets. In this deal Laiki bank was agreed to shut down, which means that Senior bondholders and savers over 100.000 (also for Bank of Cyprus deposit holders) are seized by the government.

Reuters

Unemployment Rate During Last Six Presidencies

The Wall Street Journal constructed this great overview of the unemployment rate under the last six presidents. After a big increase in the unemployment rate under Reagan, unemployment hit a record high of 11 percent, a structural decline set in. Despite cyclical increases, the unemployment rate decreased to 4-5 percent under Clinton and again under George W. Bush. Will the percentage of people of the job force without a job go to around 5 percent again?

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PIIGS Current Account 2011-2012

Société Générale made this chart on the current account balance as a percentage of GDP for Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. In October 2012 Ireland, Spain and Greece had a positive balance on the current account, meaning that the value of their exports was higher than the value of imports. Especially for Greece this is a tremendous improvement since the huge negative numbers in the beginning of 2011. Both Italy and Portugal also temporarily had a positive balance in the beginning of 2012.

The question is whether these improved current account balance mainly reflect better export fundamentals or lower imports due to lack of economic growth.

Societe Generale

Euro Zone Unemployment Spreads Q4 2012

When people talk about Euro Zone spreads they normally refer to the difference between the government borrowing interest rate of a particular Euro Zone country in comparison to the interest rate for the German government. German government bonds are taken as the benchmark since lending to the German government is basically seen as risk free. When lending to other countries, especially the southern Euro Zone countries, a risk premium is added on top of the German interest rate to reflect the higher default rate of those countries.

Besides this financial interpretation of spreads, a different form of spreads can be constructed to show the differences in the real economy between the Euro Zone countries: unemployment spreads. Unemployment spreads for the Euro Zone are defined as the difference between the unemployment rate in a particular Euro Zone country and the unemployment rate in Germany. As can be expected Euro Zone countries most hit by the Euro crisis have the highest unemployment spreads, with Greece and Spain even above 20 percent. This is a lot higher than the Euro Area average of 5.8 percent and the EU average of 5,3 percent. Austria, the Netherlands and Finland on the other hand have unemployment rates comparable to that of Germany.

OECD Yearly 2012 GDP Growth

More and more countries have been reporting their fourth quarter GDP growth for 2012 lately, and hence the yearly 2012 GDP growth rate. For the countries that have reported their figures China had the highest yearly growth rate of 7.8 percent. Indonesia and Norway are following China with 6.2 and 3.0 percent respectively. Yet, most countries had a growth rate of less than 2 percent, with most all European countries on the lower end. Portugal and Italy saw their economy's decline the most, in Portugal even with 3.2 percent.

Global House Price Indicators (January 2013)

The Economist posted this overview of global house price indicators in January 2013. Some points of interest:

• Hong Kong saw the biggest rise in housing prices: 22 percent compared to year ago, while Spain saw its house prices contract the most.
• Hong Kong was also the country that saw its house prices increase the most after the start of the global financial crisis in 2007, while Ireland saw the biggest correction; house prices were slashed in halve. 
• Housing markets in Canada and France are most overvalued according to rent and income measures, while those in Japan and China are quite undervalued compared to their long term average values.

The Economist

World 2013 GDP Forecast: Fastest Growers and Contracters

The Economist constructed this overview of those countries in the world that are forecasted to have the highest GDP growth rate as well as those that have the most negative rate. As you can see the developing countries are forecasted to grow the most. From economic theory this can be explained by the fact that these countries still have a lot growth potential, because their economies are still small. Another reason why countries may see high growth is because they are located near China, as China is growing fast the country invests a lot in neighboring countries. Mongolia and Macau (a small country similar to Hong Kong also inside China) are examples. Another reason why a country may grow fast is that it is recovering from a disaster like a natural disaster or a war, of which Libya is an example. 

On the other hand developed countries are growing a lot less and consequently all the forecasted fastest contracting countries are developed countries. Notice that all the fastest contracting countries, besides Syria and Iran, are located in Europe. 

The Economist

2012 Euro Area Bond Yields

Compared to the beginning of the year, especially Greek and Portuguese, bond yields have come down quite a lot during the year. As is noted in the graph the Greek debt restructuring for Greek debt and the verbal commitment by the ECB president Draghi in July dampened the exit and breakup risk and hence brought down sovereign debt yields.

Where will the bond yields go in 2013?

The Economist