Quarterly EU House Prices (2005-2013Q4)

With new data from Eurostat for the percentage change in q4 2013 of the house prices in the EU I constructed this graph. During the last quarter of 2013 the United Kingdom and Sweden saw big increases in their house prices, while house prices in the Netherlands and Cyprus decreased. For the EU as a whole house prices decreased with 0.1 percent compared to Q4 2012.

Eurostat

Dutch house prices versus inflation

With data from Statistics Netherlands De-Starter constructed this graph with house prices compared to inflation. Both house prices and inflation are index numbers set to 1965 = 100. From the middle of the nineties house prices started to deviate substantially from inflation growth. When the increases in house prices are equal to inflation growth in the long run it is expected that house prices would decline more in the future.

De-Starter

400 Years of Dutch House Prices

This graph gives the real (2009) average house price in the Netherlands from 1628 until 2009. As you can see on average over housing cycles house prices remained around their long term average level of 100.000 euro's. Currently the house prices are way above the long term avearge.

Prijsbewegingen op de koopwoningmarkt - Onderzoeksinstituut OTB/TU Delft

Global Housing Market Update

This table from The Economist shows average house prices in Developed and Bric countries compared to their respective income and rent levels. House prices in Hong Kong, Canada and New Zealand are most overvalued. While house prices in Japan are highly undervalued. Also, the graph shows that Hong Kong saw the highest average price increase over the last year. The Netherlands had the biggest decline.

Due to a request by the Economist this graph has been removed. 

View the graph here

Projected Government Spending For Developed Countries in 2013

Denmark has the highest projected government spending as a percentage of GDP, with 58.4 percent. France and Austria also have notably high expentiture percentages, even above Noric countries Finland and Sweden. Greece doesn't have that high government spending after all with 48.3 it is around the average. Australia has the lowest government spending for the selected countries.

Banking Sector: Percentage of GDP Across the World

This chart shows the banking sector in terms of assets as a percentage of GDP forcseveral continents. What stands out, are the extremely large banking sectors in European countries.

ZeroHedge

History of EU/Euro Zone (1929-2013)

Large overview of the history of the EU and the implementation of the Euro. From the first suggestion for a common European currency in 1929 until Croatia joining the EU in the beginning of 2013.

History of Credit Bubbles

This chart shows a historic overview of several financial bubbles. From the Tulip Mania in the 1630's to the Real estate Boom that ended in the late 2000's. This research was provided by Goldman Sachs.

Click on the picture for a bigger version.

ZeroHedge

EZ Banking Sector As a Percentage of GDP (2000-2013)

This great chart by Thomson Reuters shows the Euro Zone bankings sectors of their respective countries GDP. With Luxembourg leading with a big gap, Ireland and Cyprus follow. Slovenia and Greece have notably small banking sectors.


Click on the picture for a bigger version.

OECD Direct Fiscal Costs of 2008 Financial Crisis

This chart shows the direct fiscal costs for the financial crisis in OECD countries between 2007 and 2009. Especially Ireland and also Iceland stand out as having relatively high costs in those years relating to the crisis. Notably the Netherlands is third and USA only comes in on the eight spot.

EU House Price Change Since Credit Crisis (2008-2012)

This chart with data from Eurostat shows the average change in the house prices in the EU since the credit crisis really started to break down in the United States, the second half of 2008, until the third quarter of 2012. Countries known for being in a big crisis at the moment saw the largest declines in their house prices, mainly Ireland and Spain. The Netherlands and Denmark have to highest household debt-to-gdp ratio's in the world and saw their house prices declines a lot as well. The last group of countries on the downside are several East-European countries for which Latvia and Lithuania saw big declines. In contrast, three out of four Scandinavia countries had their house prices increase substantially.

Luxetveritas

Euro Zone Unemployment Spreads Q4 2012

When people talk about Euro Zone spreads they normally refer to the difference between the government borrowing interest rate of a particular Euro Zone country in comparison to the interest rate for the German government. German government bonds are taken as the benchmark since lending to the German government is basically seen as risk free. When lending to other countries, especially the southern Euro Zone countries, a risk premium is added on top of the German interest rate to reflect the higher default rate of those countries.

Besides this financial interpretation of spreads, a different form of spreads can be constructed to show the differences in the real economy between the Euro Zone countries: unemployment spreads. Unemployment spreads for the Euro Zone are defined as the difference between the unemployment rate in a particular Euro Zone country and the unemployment rate in Germany. As can be expected Euro Zone countries most hit by the Euro crisis have the highest unemployment spreads, with Greece and Spain even above 20 percent. This is a lot higher than the Euro Area average of 5.8 percent and the EU average of 5,3 percent. Austria, the Netherlands and Finland on the other hand have unemployment rates comparable to that of Germany.

OECD Yearly 2012 GDP Growth

More and more countries have been reporting their fourth quarter GDP growth for 2012 lately, and hence the yearly 2012 GDP growth rate. For the countries that have reported their figures China had the highest yearly growth rate of 7.8 percent. Indonesia and Norway are following China with 6.2 and 3.0 percent respectively. Yet, most countries had a growth rate of less than 2 percent, with most all European countries on the lower end. Portugal and Italy saw their economy's decline the most, in Portugal even with 3.2 percent.

Global House Price Indicators (January 2013)

The Economist posted this overview of global house price indicators in January 2013. Some points of interest:

• Hong Kong saw the biggest rise in housing prices: 22 percent compared to year ago, while Spain saw its house prices contract the most.
• Hong Kong was also the country that saw its house prices increase the most after the start of the global financial crisis in 2007, while Ireland saw the biggest correction; house prices were slashed in halve. 
• Housing markets in Canada and France are most overvalued according to rent and income measures, while those in Japan and China are quite undervalued compared to their long term average values.

The Economist

World 2013 GDP Forecast: Fastest Growers and Contracters

The Economist constructed this overview of those countries in the world that are forecasted to have the highest GDP growth rate as well as those that have the most negative rate. As you can see the developing countries are forecasted to grow the most. From economic theory this can be explained by the fact that these countries still have a lot growth potential, because their economies are still small. Another reason why countries may see high growth is because they are located near China, as China is growing fast the country invests a lot in neighboring countries. Mongolia and Macau (a small country similar to Hong Kong also inside China) are examples. Another reason why a country may grow fast is that it is recovering from a disaster like a natural disaster or a war, of which Libya is an example. 

On the other hand developed countries are growing a lot less and consequently all the forecasted fastest contracting countries are developed countries. Notice that all the fastest contracting countries, besides Syria and Iran, are located in Europe. 

Due to a request by the Economist this graph has been removed. 

View the graph here

EU Countries 2012 Government Debt Projections

Reuters constructed this graph, with data from the European Commission, which shows the projected government debt ratio's for the selected EU countries. As you cansee for most countries the debt to gdp ratio is well above it's 10 year average.

As you might have expected Greece has the highest debt to gdp ratio. On the other hand, Sweden's debt is even lower than it's 10 year average. Euro Area avearge government debt is expected to be at 95 percent.

Reuters

Household Debt Versus Disposable Income (1995-2011)

This graph gives the ratio of total household debt divided by the total of disposable income of the households in countries of the Euro Area and the USA. On average the household debt to income rate was relatively stable in the Euro Area approaching the 100 percent just before the credit crisis from around 70 percent at the beginning of the Euro. The household debt to income ratio was already higher in 1999 in the USA and saw a much bigger increase, but unlike in the Euro Area the ratio has come back quite a lot already in the United States.

The average of around 100 percent currently in the Euro Area is mainly formed by the bigger economies: Germany and France, who have a ratio close to the Euro Area average. There are notable outliners, especially Denmark, The Netherlands and Ireland that have a way bigger ratio of 200 to almost 300 percent.

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Credit Ratings, U.S., Japan and Euro Zone (Oct 2012)

Thompson Reuters created this graph with the long term sovereign debt ratings for the Western countries. For the three major credit rating institutions the ratings are listed.

Thompson Reuters

Government Debt in the EU Countries (second quarter 2012)

This great graph from Reuters shows per EU country the government debt it had at the end of the second quarter, as a percentage of GDP.

Since the crisis Portugal, Ireland have been accumulating debt at a high rate, while seeing their economy shrink significantly. This is shows in the government-debt-to-GDP measure, for which they are in respectively  the third and the fourth place in having the highest government debt in the EU.

Estonia and Bulgaria have the lowest government debt in the EU.

Some Convergence Actually Took Place In The Euro Zone

This graph, from a presentation of the ceo of the Dutch Central Bank, shows that some convergence actually  took place since the implementation of the Euro. The graph shows the difference in the growth of the listed countries with the growth of Germany. Especially Ireland, Greece and Spain grew a lot faster than Germany. In 2007 that difference was even 40 percent for Ireland, cumulatively. Portugal and Italy were not able to generate more growth than Germany.

DNB

One of the causes for this convergence may be that Ireland, Spain and Greece saw their real interest rate decline significantly. This graph shows that the extra growth was actually partly financed with borrowed money:

DNB

Also this was accompanied by inflation:

DNB