Unemployment Rate During Last Six Presidencies

The Wall Street Journal constructed this great overview of the unemployment rate under the last six presidents. After a big increase in the unemployment rate under Reagan, unemployment hit a record high of 11 percent, a structural decline set in. Despite cyclical increases, the unemployment rate decreased to 4-5 percent under Clinton and again under George W. Bush. Will the percentage of people of the job force without a job go to around 5 percent again?

Twitter

EU Economic & Political Overview

This graph shows per country first the forecasted GDP-growth for 2012, second the unemployment and last the government election date.

Business Insider

Greece Economic Overview (May 2012)

Overview of the Greece economy (May 2012). Especially notice the consumer confidence and the collapsed new car registrations.

Total Jobs: United States Vs. Euro Zone

As you can see in this graph, before the Great Recession the total nominal employment was higher in the United States than in the Euro Zone. During the Great Recession U.S. employment declined more than twice the number of the Euro Zone. Unlike the U.S., the Euro Zone has not seen a recovery in the number of jobs. Since late 2011 the number of jobs are even declining again in the Euro Zone.

Zero Hedge

EU: Broader Unemployment Rate (2011)

This graph shows a wider measue of unemployment for the countries in the European Union. The blue line (U-3) is the normal unemployment rate, as reported by the national statistical agencies. Unemployment is defined as the part of the labor force without a job that is available and actively seeking for a job. With this measure Spain clearly has the highest unemployment, followed by Greece and Lithuania. 

Next to the normal measure of unemployment people in the work force can also be seeking for work, but not immediately available or available but not seeking or involuntary part-time. When you add these factors you get the total (partly) workless labor supply. With this measure Spain is still the country with the highest unemployment. Latvia and Ireland are now second and third. Spain, Ireland and Sweden are countries with a relatively high percentage of the labor force being involuntary part-time. Italy and Latvia are countries that have especially a high percentage of the labor force available, but not seeking. 

Luxetveritas

Why the U.S. Job Market Did Not Recover

This graph shows the employment to population ratio. In other words it shows the percentage of the population the is working. In collapsed during the crisis and didn't recover at all yet.

FED

Spanish Construction Employment From Record High to Record Low

With real interest rates going negative in the years after 2000, more than 5 million new immigrants added to the labor force and high amounts of lending by households and companies (from abroad) not only a housing bubble was created in Spain but also one in the construction market.

When the credit crisis begun and interest rates started to rise it became clear that this boom was not sustainable. Construction employment dropped to the lowest value in 25 years this year.

Economies of Italy and Spain Compared (March 2012)

Before the crises started in 2008 the economy in Spain grew remarkably faster than in Italy. Since the crisis started Spain is still doing relatively better (or rather less bad) again, as you can see in the first graph on the left. While that happened Spain's unemployment, while being almost the same as for Italy in 2007, was more than double the rate of Italy in 2011. Spain again is doing better for the government debt, although it increased a lot more since the crises than in Italy, so the two graphs on the bottom show.

Spain and Italy's bond yields were closely tied in the last five years. In late 2011 Italy's bond yields sparked above that of Spain, but since a few weeks Italy's yields have come down to around Spain's yield again.

Percent U.S. Job Losses Great Recession Compared to the Depression

In this post from April last year I already showed the great graph Calculated Risk blog makes each time new (un)employment figures for the United States are released. The current job market crisis is compared to those after the other recessions after WWII for the percent of job losses. Unfortunately there was no data available for the Great Depression. Although not a as detailed as the other graph Calculated Risk was recently able to construct a graph comparing the current crisis with the Depression. It is not as detailed because only yearly estimates are available for the depression. You can see that the current recession is by far not as severe as the Great Depression.

Calculated Risk

United States Initial Jobless Claims

U can debate whether the U.S. labor market - with the unemployment rate declining in recent months - is really improving. Especially if you look at decreasing participation of the labor force and the still very high average duration of unemployment the actual improvement is questionable. The growth of new unemployed is getting lower and lower though. With the initial jobless claims on a four year low. At least one sign that is really improving of the labor market.

Unemployment in Germany, Spain & EU Compared

You can see before the introduction of the euro the unemployment rates in Spain and Germany converged.  Until recently Spain and Germany both had their unemployment rate around the average of the European Union. Over the last two decades on average Spain's unemployment rate was about just under 15%. Germany on the other hand had on average an unemployment rate of about 9 percent.

Since the crisis Spain's unemployment rose dramatically. Its now more than double the average in the European Union. In Germany the unemployment even decreased since the crisis. Germany's unemployment hasn't been this low for twenty years.

European Youth Unemployment 1991-2012

This graph shows the people under 25 actively looking for work as a percentage of the labor force (up to 25 years) for selected countries in Europe. In other words the European youth unemployment. For most countries the youth unemployment declined before and after the introduction of the euro. Although this was not the case for Germany and Portugal where youth unemployment actually increased after the euro was introduced. In the United Kingdom youth unemployment was relatively stable until the crisis.

Why The U.S. Participation Rate Is Declining, Besides The Crisis

The participation rate is the ratio of the population over 15 that either works or is actively looking for work. The participation rate decreased sharply during the crises.

According to the Congressional Budget Office there are several (structural) reasons which led to a decrease in the labor force participation rate in the United States, besides the economic crisis.

1. Long term trend for people between 16-24 to study more and work less while studying.  
2. The Baby boom elderly population starts to retire. 
3. In november most of the drop in the participation rate was driven by unmarried woman. The share of woman who chose to work fell to its lowest level in 20 years.

Ofcourse these causes may well be strengthened by the economic crisis and its important not to forget the United States unemployment is still at a record high. Although lower than the unemployment of the European Union.

Washington Post

US Average Duration Of Unemployment Exploded

Reuters made a graph of the average number of weeks workers are unemployed in the United States. As you can see this is higher than any after war period. Unfortunately the depression in the thirties is not pictured.

European Unemployment Pictured

This graph shows the unemployment in Europe with the average unemployment in Europe in the middle (EA17: 17 countries in the Euro Area). Notable countries are Spain with the highest unemployment by far and  Norway with the lowest unemployment.

Economic Pic

'The Lost Generation', Youth Unemployment In Eurozone and US

This graph from The Economist compares current youth unemployment rates with the rates before the crisis.

Due to a request by the Economist this graph has been removed. 

View the graph here

QE2 In Relation To Leading Indicators

Business Insider made four charts comparing Quantitative Easing 2 with unemployment, consumer credit, housing market and inflation expectations. During QE2 Unemployment, Consumer Credit and the Housing Market didn't improve under QE2. Inflation expectations on the other hand did improve.

Source: Business Insider

Big Increase in Greece Youth Unemployment

According to the national Greek statistical authority the youth unemployment (15-24 years) has increased from 25% in 2009 till 42% in 2011.

Source: HELLENIC STATISTICAL AUTHORITY

Percent Job Losses in Post WWII-Recessions

Great unemployment graph by Calculated Risk with shows the Percent Job Losses in Post WWII Recession, with the last recession clearly as the worst.

Source: Calculated Risk

IMF WEO Spring 2011: Unemployment

IMF WEO Spring 2011: Unemployment (latest unemployment rate minus six-year average before the crisis)

Unemployment rate modified for the 'normal' unemployment rate, which gives cyclical unemployment.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/c1/fig1_19.pdf

AR: Argentina; AU: Australia; BR: Brazil; CA: Canada; CN: China; DE: Germany; EU: euro area; FR: France; GB: United Kingdom; ID: Indonesia; IT: Italy; JP: Japan; KR: Korea; MX: Mexico; RU: Russia; TR: Turkey; US: United States; ZA: South Africa.


Conclusion: the United States unemployment rate is relatively high.