Has Deleveraging in EU only just Begun?

Only in Ireland private debt has gone down notably. In Greece and Italy only the growth stopped, no deleveraging can be seen yet. For a fast recovery in all of these countries, private debt needs to decrease more. 

Washington Post

History of Credit Bubbles

This chart shows a historic overview of several financial bubbles. From the Tulip Mania in the 1630's to the Real estate Boom that ended in the late 2000's. This research was provided by Goldman Sachs.

Click on the picture for a bigger version.

ZeroHedge

OECD Direct Fiscal Costs of 2008 Financial Crisis

This chart shows the direct fiscal costs for the financial crisis in OECD countries between 2007 and 2009. Especially Ireland and also Iceland stand out as having relatively high costs in those years relating to the crisis. Notably the Netherlands is third and USA only comes in on the eight spot.

PIIGS Current Account 2011-2012

Société Générale made this chart on the current account balance as a percentage of GDP for Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. In October 2012 Ireland, Spain and Greece had a positive balance on the current account, meaning that the value of their exports was higher than the value of imports. Especially for Greece this is a tremendous improvement since the huge negative numbers in the beginning of 2011. Both Italy and Portugal also temporarily had a positive balance in the beginning of 2012.

The question is whether these improved current account balance mainly reflect better export fundamentals or lower imports due to lack of economic growth.

Societe Generale

Euro Zone Unemployment Spreads Q4 2012

When people talk about Euro Zone spreads they normally refer to the difference between the government borrowing interest rate of a particular Euro Zone country in comparison to the interest rate for the German government. German government bonds are taken as the benchmark since lending to the German government is basically seen as risk free. When lending to other countries, especially the southern Euro Zone countries, a risk premium is added on top of the German interest rate to reflect the higher default rate of those countries.

Besides this financial interpretation of spreads, a different form of spreads can be constructed to show the differences in the real economy between the Euro Zone countries: unemployment spreads. Unemployment spreads for the Euro Zone are defined as the difference between the unemployment rate in a particular Euro Zone country and the unemployment rate in Germany. As can be expected Euro Zone countries most hit by the Euro crisis have the highest unemployment spreads, with Greece and Spain even above 20 percent. This is a lot higher than the Euro Area average of 5.8 percent and the EU average of 5,3 percent. Austria, the Netherlands and Finland on the other hand have unemployment rates comparable to that of Germany.

Global House Price Indicators (January 2013)

The Economist posted this overview of global house price indicators in January 2013. Some points of interest:

• Hong Kong saw the biggest rise in housing prices: 22 percent compared to year ago, while Spain saw its house prices contract the most.
• Hong Kong was also the country that saw its house prices increase the most after the start of the global financial crisis in 2007, while Ireland saw the biggest correction; house prices were slashed in halve. 
• Housing markets in Canada and France are most overvalued according to rent and income measures, while those in Japan and China are quite undervalued compared to their long term average values.

The Economist

2012 Euro Area Bond Yields

Compared to the beginning of the year, especially Greek and Portuguese, bond yields have come down quite a lot during the year. As is noted in the graph the Greek debt restructuring for Greek debt and the verbal commitment by the ECB president Draghi in July dampened the exit and breakup risk and hence brought down sovereign debt yields.

Where will the bond yields go in 2013?

The Economist

EU Countries 2012 Government Debt Projections

Reuters constructed this graph, with data from the European Commission, which shows the projected government debt ratio's for the selected EU countries. As you cansee for most countries the debt to gdp ratio is well above it's 10 year average.

As you might have expected Greece has the highest debt to gdp ratio. On the other hand, Sweden's debt is even lower than it's 10 year average. Euro Area avearge government debt is expected to be at 95 percent.

Reuters

Household Debt Versus Disposable Income (1995-2011)

This graph gives the ratio of total household debt divided by the total of disposable income of the households in countries of the Euro Area and the USA. On average the household debt to income rate was relatively stable in the Euro Area approaching the 100 percent just before the credit crisis from around 70 percent at the beginning of the Euro. The household debt to income ratio was already higher in 1999 in the USA and saw a much bigger increase, but unlike in the Euro Area the ratio has come back quite a lot already in the United States.

The average of around 100 percent currently in the Euro Area is mainly formed by the bigger economies: Germany and France, who have a ratio close to the Euro Area average. There are notable outliners, especially Denmark, The Netherlands and Ireland that have a way bigger ratio of 200 to almost 300 percent.

, 

Housing Bubbles in U.S., Spain and Ireland Compared

This awesome tool from The Economist let's you compare house prices around the world. As you see house prices in Ireland rose the most relatively between the three countries. For Ireland and the U.S. house prices have corrected quite significantly already. In Spain it seems, the worst is yet to come for the decline in prices.

Via the link you can compare some other countries yourself.

The Economist

Credit Ratings, U.S., Japan and Euro Zone (Oct 2012)

Thompson Reuters created this graph with the long term sovereign debt ratings for the Western countries. For the three major credit rating institutions the ratings are listed.

Thompson Reuters

Government Debt in the EU Countries (second quarter 2012)

This great graph from Reuters shows per EU country the government debt it had at the end of the second quarter, as a percentage of GDP.

Since the crisis Portugal, Ireland have been accumulating debt at a high rate, while seeing their economy shrink significantly. This is shows in the government-debt-to-GDP measure, for which they are in respectively  the third and the fourth place in having the highest government debt in the EU.

Estonia and Bulgaria have the lowest government debt in the EU.

IMF Euro Zone Inflation Forecasts to 2017 (WEO Fall 2012)

Greek inflation is slowing down tremendously, from more than 4 percent in 2010 to expected deflation in 2013 and 2014. The other countries are expected to have their inflation rates to be relatively close to the EU average. Lower in Spain and Italy and higher in Germany.

Bondvigilants

Some Convergence Actually Took Place In The Euro Zone

This graph, from a presentation of the ceo of the Dutch Central Bank, shows that some convergence actually  took place since the implementation of the Euro. The graph shows the difference in the growth of the listed countries with the growth of Germany. Especially Ireland, Greece and Spain grew a lot faster than Germany. In 2007 that difference was even 40 percent for Ireland, cumulatively. Portugal and Italy were not able to generate more growth than Germany.

DNB

One of the causes for this convergence may be that Ireland, Spain and Greece saw their real interest rate decline significantly. This graph shows that the extra growth was actually partly financed with borrowed money:

DNB

Also this was accompanied by inflation:

DNB

IMF Euro Zone GDP Forecasts (WEO Fall 2012)

This graph shows the latest IMF forecasts for the GDP growth rates for a number of selected countries. For most countries the next few years won't be easy, but will see GDP growth rates get out of negative territory gradually. Greece is even expected to grow by more than three percent from 2016.

Bondvigilants

IMF Euro Zone Unemployment Rate Forecasts (WEO Fall 2012)

This graph shows the unemployment rates the IMF has projected for several Euro Zone countries. Note that the institute expects the high Greek unemployment to go down faster than the high unemployment in Spain.

Bondvigiliants

EU VAT-Rates Compared

The value added tax raises the price on consumer goods. Almost all EU countries had a higher VAT-rate in 2012 compared to 2000. Perhaps surprisingly, Hungary has the highest VAT-rate, followed by Scandinavian Denmark and Sweden. Cyprus, Portugal, Greece, Spain and Romania particularly saw their VAT rising in the last twelve years. Except for Cyprus, all of these countries have now a higher rate than the average for the EU of 21 percent.

Reuters

Oil Consumption (consumers+companies) Per Capita

As you were able to see in the post a few days ago, The United States consumes the most oil of all the countries. Perhaps surprisingly enough, it is not the country with the highest oil consumption per capita. Singapore takes the first spot, with Kuwait and Saudi Arabia second and third. The U.S. only takes the ninth place after two more oil producing countries, two European countries and Canada. Perhaps also surprisingly, Germany is on the bottom of the developed countries.

Update: this chart also shows consumption of companies, like aviation and oil refinery. That's why consumption per capita may be a bit misleading.

Oil Consumption Per Capita

Exports As a Percentage of GDP (Germany Versus PIIGS)

Ireland is the champion of exports in the Euro Zone. Germany takes a good second place and Portugal's economy is also quite dependent on the international trade. Greece on the other hand has the lowest exports as a percentage of GDP, of the selected countries.

Reuters

OECD: Official Versus Effective Retirement Age

The official retirement age is rarely equal to the effective retirement age, the average age the people actually retire. As you can see in this chart the official retirement age can be both higher and lower than the effective retirement age. What is the same for all countries is that the life expectancy was raised and that (assuming an equal or declining birth rate) the work force needs to finance more elderly people. A very reasonable option to do that is by raising the effective retirement age (with the official retirement age).

Japan and Sweden had the highest effective retirement age in 2010, while Austria, France and Belgium (and not Greece) had the lowest effective retirement age.

The Economist